By Armin Gehl, Managing Director autoregion e.V., Saarbrücken

While the promotion of hydrogen and synthetic fuels increasingly threatens to be overshadowed by transport policy activities in the transformation process from fossil fuels to climate-friendly or CO2-neutral alternatives, the triumph of the battery-electric drive seems unbroken. Contrary to the general trend, new registrations of electric cars in Germany rose by 83 percent in 2021 compared to the previous year – and this despite supply bottlenecks for electronic components and resulting production delays. However, the entirely justified euphoria about this increase is dampened when attention is drawn to the still unsatisfactorily solved problem of disposing of battery units that are no longer usable. Are we threatened by mountains of old batteries that can no longer be used?

Industrial history is full of developments, processes and products that were initially celebrated as innovative and progressive, but whose success was ultimately thwarted by the unresolved issue of disposal. The following examples illustrate this:

In the mid-1980s, the PET bottle was still seen as the environmentally friendly and lightweight alternative to the glass bottle, but this view has changed significantly in the meantime. It is true that PET bottles are almost 100 per cent recycled, especially in countries with returnable deposit systems. But in Third World countries, where residual waste disposal of light materials often takes place via rivers, thousands and thousands of tonnes of PET bottles are washed into the oceans as plastic waste and destroy or endanger beaches as well as water quality and fish stocks.

Probably the most prominent example of industrial and energy processes that have not been thought through to the end is the peaceful use of nuclear energy. In Germany, at least, it failed to achieve final success in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 because of the apparently uncontrollable risk potential of the process. But the political discussion about the expansion of nuclear energy was dominated for years by the question “Where to put the nuclear waste?”, which was never answered satisfactorily.

The problem of disposing of drive batteries that can no longer be used in electric vehicles is not yet threateningly topical as a mass or quantity phenomenon in view of the novelty of this drive technology. But the question will inevitably arise in the foreseeable future. Even if we are currently talking about “only” about one million newly registered electric or hybrid vehicles per year in Germany, one must bear in mind that the number of vehicles with battery units will increase exponentially. The fact that the number of electric vehicles worldwide has increased fifty-fold since 2012 may serve as an indication of this. Against this backdrop, one gets the impression that neither the manufacturers nor the industry nor the politicians are prepared for this development with appropriate – even large-scale – solution concepts. The all-important success question is: “Where to put automotive e-waste?”

Up to now, an average service life of eight to ten years has been assumed for e-car batteries. This is based on the assumption of approximately 500 to 1.000 charging processes, an average range of 100 kilometres per charging process, which then corresponds to a mileage of 50.000 to 100.000 kilometres. The manufacturer’s warranties for electric car batteries are also in this range. Almost all manufacturers guarantee a service life of eight years and a mileage of 160.000 to 240.000 kilometres. However, these figures are likely to be the basis for further efficiency gains in terms of range and service life, as all manufacturers are conducting intensive research into improving the performance of the batteries. A service life of 15 years does not seem out of the question.

When we talk about the service life of an e-car battery, we usually mean the period of time during which its performance is sufficient for use in the car. After approximately 2000 to 2500 charging processes, the batteries currently in use still have an energy content of 70 to 80 percent of their capacity at the beginning of their life cycle. This means that they do not necessarily have to be disposed of or that their continued use in stationary operation – in so-called “second life” – can make perfect sense both economically and ecologically. Pilot operations in which old batteries are connected together and used as stationary power storage units for solar or wind energy are interesting approaches. However, there is still a lack of systematic business models that would make the economically viable secondary recycling of old batteries in larger quantities appear sensible within a circular economy. And there are justified doubts about the systematic development of efficient “second life” systems in view of the lack of standardisation in terms of both constructional design and technical performance data – in contrast to the car batteries used in combustion vehicles. If these were available, the total service life of an e-car battery would be extended by around ten to twelve years to a total of around 20 years.

However, this assumption should not give the deceptive impression that one can still take one’s time with solving the disposal problem. One of the main reasons for dealing with it more quickly is the high cost of procuring the necessary raw materials.

Today’s lithium-ion batteries are largely made of aluminium, steel or plastics and are produced using raw materials such as lithium, manganese, cobalt, nickel and graphite. Cobalt and lithium in particular are only available in limited quantities or are difficult to extract. Experts expect a shortage of cobalt in particular in the coming years because of its importance for the production of electrical devices, whereas lithium has come under criticism because of its environmentally harmful effects during mining.

This makes the recovery of valuable raw materials in the recycling process seem almost imperative for the future. There is no doubt about the technical feasibility of recycling e-car batteries. According to Denis Stijepic of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, the recovery of cobalt and nickel has already achieved remarkable results, whereas there is still considerable development potential for lithium, graphite and manganese. The decisive factors for the results of the recycling process are the quality and quantity that can be achieved at what cost and under what environmental conditions.

The procurement of raw materials on the world markets is still the more favourable alternative from a cost point of view compared to a regulated and analytical recycling process. But here, too, the limited availability will change the sign of the cost calculation. This realisation is driving almost all vehicle manufacturers – VW and Tesla in the lead – to develop their own recycling processes. According to general estimates, the share of recycled material in the production of electric batteries could be around 40 percent in 2050. The associated business prospects are also attracting companies that do not have their roots in the traditional automotive business.

The classic automotive supplier companies are falling by the wayside. A study conducted by PwC on behalf of CLEPA, the European suppliers’ association, comes to the conclusion that the processing of battery materials requires fundamentally different know-how, both in terms of products and production processes, which is not available in the same way in supplier companies focused on conventional combustion engine technology. Small and medium-sized companies, which currently account for about 20 per cent of the supplier market, are particularly at risk. Alarming is the study’s finding that corresponding battery activities would not only not take place in the same companies, but also in other regions. This means that we are currently not in a position, either in terms of personnel or expertise, within the automotive industry to create corresponding battery disposal capacities. Such news should reverberate in the ears of those responsible in industry and politics and urgently be taken into account in the design of structural framework conditions.

German manufacturers such as Daimler, BMW and VW, along with Tesla, are still asserting their position as global innovation drivers in electromobility when it comes to questions of product design. But the example of nuclear energy shows that long-term and sustainable success will only be granted to those who can prove their innovative strength along the entire value chain. And in the case of e-mobility, this also includes the disposal of old batteries.