15 million electric cars registered on our roads by 2030 was the target formulated in the coalition agreement of the traffic light government. Even the greatest optimists no longer believe that this can be achieved. Even the Federal Environment Agency, which is close to the government, expects the maximum number of electric vehicles to be close to eleven million by the end of the decade. The inevitable consequence is that the climate target for the transport sector in 2023 was missed by a clear 13 million tons of CO2 and the prospects for the current year do not look much better. What are the reasons for this undesirable development and what needs to be done to take serious countermeasures?
Our decarbonization strategy is based on the international commitments we have made to reduce CO2 emissions, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its additional protocols, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The Federal Climate Protection Act of 2019 set binding greenhouse gas reduction targets in various emissions sectors for the period up to 2030. In the group of the largest emitters, the transport sector ranks third after energy production and the industrial sector with 23% or 146 million tons of CO2 equivalent. And it is particularly noteworthy that private transport, and not air or sea transport, accounts for by far the largest share.
According to the Federal Environment Agency, the share of traffic in total emissions has risen sharply in recent years, which is primarily due to growing road freight traffic, intensive private transport and the continued high sales of diesel fuels.
The failure to achieve the registration figures for e-vehicles should therefore set alarm bells ringing for all those responsible, as the proportion of e-vehicles is a very important element in achieving the climate targets. And the share of new car registrations has fallen from almost 16% of new registrations in May 2023 to just 12% in May 2024.
But what are the main reasons for this development?
One of the main reasons for this development is the discontinuation of the state sales subsidy, the so-called environmental bonus for electric cars, in December 2023. The original plan was to continue the subsidy with reduced funding in 2024. However, fiscal rather than environmental policy reasons prompted the German government to take this step. The consequences were immediate. New registrations of e-vehicles fell. The government lost confidence, as tens of thousands had been counting on the subsidy and now had to make new plans.
The main consequence, however, was that electric vehicles found themselves in competition with all other combustion vehicles virtually overnight, without government intervention. And with its relentless openness, the market revealed all the weaknesses of e-mobility and the previous subsidy policy.
While buyers were prepared to generously overlook disadvantages such as high prices, short ranges or inadequate charging infrastructure in view of the high subsidy premiums, these obvious weaknesses now became much more relevant for the purchase decision. And this purchase decision was increasingly in favor of the traditional combustion vehicle.
An inherent weakness in the German government’s previous funding policy, which was essentially a contribution to sales financing for vehicle manufacturers, also became apparent. The predominantly medium-sized supplier sector was unable to benefit from this, but had to bear a large part of the transformation burden by converting its product portfolio to the requirements of e-mobility. And the OEMs naturally showed little inclination to pass on the benefits they derived from the sales promotion to the supplier sector.
A funding policy that – distributed across the entire automotive value chain – was geared towards the necessary investments for the transition to e-mobility would have been much more sustainable. And it would have benefited not only the manufacturers, but also the entire supplier sector, including garages.
Another weakness of the subsidy policy can be seen in the pricing of electric vehicles. They are significantly more expensive to buy than vehicles of the same brand with conventional combustion engines. In view of the discontinued purchase premiums, this is now having a fatal effect, as it is unlikely that electric vehicles will be able to compete with combustion vehicles on price in the short term. Even the attempt by some manufacturers to achieve higher sales figures by reducing prices has not had the desired effect. In some cases, the opposite effect even occurred. In view of feared price falls for used vehicles, large customers such as vehicle rental companies or other fleet operators were forced to make high special write-downs on their electric vehicle stock. As a result, these operators are refraining from purchasing new electric vehicles altogether until prices have calmed down on the markets.
Another main argument put forward against the purchase of an electric vehicle is the insufficient availability of an efficient charging infrastructure.
According to a survey by the ADAC, Germany currently has a nationwide charging network with around 150,000 charging points. Even among experts, the number of charging points required by 2030 is disputed. Assumptions range from a requirement of 250,000 to one million. At present, it can be said that we have a solid charging infrastructure along the highways and in urban areas. However, the situation is different in rural regions. Trips abroad also require a high degree of forward planning, as there are still considerable gaps in the charging infrastructure, particularly in Eastern and Southern Europe – not to mention standardized payment systems.
In addition to the charging infrastructure, purchasing decisions are significantly influenced by the state of battery tech The discussion surrounding the EU ban on combustion engines in 2035 has become a central point of criticism of the decarbonization strategy. In view of the fact that registration figures do not meet original expectations, at least the date but also the ban itself is considered unrealistic or not expedient. Unfortunately, the discussion is increasingly characterized by political populism. Some political decision-makers are creating the impression that the climate targets are achievable even without the ban on combustion engines and that environmentally friendly operation of combustion vehicles is still possible without significant restrictions.
This position can only be clearly contradicted. The climate policy goals cannot be achieved by continuing to operate conventional combustion engines. The most effective alternative is the electric drive, powered by green electricity. In order to achieve this, however, we need a funding policy based on openness to technology that gives transitional and alternative technologies such as hydrogen, fuel cells, biofuels and, in particular, e-fuels an appropriate status. In addition, industry, workshops and trade need stable long-term framework conditions in order to be able to make the investment decisions necessary for the development and production of new innovative products. Constant changes of direction and the incalculable sustainability of key political decisions have a counterproductive effect on investment decisions.
This is the only way we will get out of the current strategic impasse and help our industry to regain a globally competitive position – while adhering to the environmental targets we consider to be right.
Armin Gehl, Managing Director of autoregion e.V., Saarbrücken
Copyright: VEK Verlag Elisabeth Klock
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